Fishburn Hedges

08.08.2011

Spain is the fourth largest economy - and the fourth largest bond market – in the Eurozone.  It has many leading international companies – not least in financial services – and is a member of the G20.  The early elections just called by Prime Minister Zapatero are therefore of considerable interest to many in international business and finance dealing with Spain, its markets and its companies.  Alejandra Moore Mayorga from Grupo Albión in Madrid gives her perspective:

My grandfather was a very wise man. I say this not because he was my grandfather but because that is one of the adjectives used absolutely every time he is described by anyone who knew him.  And this wise man, who lived very intensely the period that has been considered one of the most transitional in Spain’s history, advised me “…my dear, time puts everything, every event and decision, every leader in perspective, it is impossible to fully and fairly judge people and their actions in the moment.” He died before Spanish Prime Minister Rodriguez Zapatero came into power.

Yet that is what we all demand: to understand things immediately, take people and their actions and ask “what does this mean now? What is the impact going to be tomorrow and what decisions do I have to make immediately?”

So keeping in mind the words of a wise man, let’s venture to think what Spain will be as a nation, an economy and as a society and therefore where we could all be over the next five years.

A tricky path

Today Spain finds itself on a rather precarious narrow and rocky path, a donkey-trail in the Pyrenees, without the views.

It’s like watching a National Geographic documentary, epic in resources deployed to follow up-close the story, a keen artistic eye filming to catch every detail, magnifying every breath, making relevant the irrelevant by simply zooming in on that and nothing else. The principal audience is a disjointed and mesmerized political and financial world.

There is another audience watching too. Younger, only recently exposed to thrill and adrenaline rushes, now addicted to the instant kick generated by witnessing the rapid demise of others. It’s part of globalisation, and fast-news versus fast-food – definitely unhealthy.

Spain has been led for the last 7 years by a person comparable in the animal world to a donkey.  Obstinate, slight in stature, limited in vision, with big ears, yet seemingly deaf to advice.

The path taken has evolved treacherously, the Country peering down either side from the saddlebags seeing the certain death that waits should there be a single misstep by the little donkey. The road becomes so narrow that even the obstinate donkey’s doubts grow, can he make it through the pass with the weight of Spain, wiggling in pain on his back? … his doubts – finally – outgrow his ego.

Like a widening of the road, or a tree-shaded stretch, early elections are brayed, resonating throughout the land; the Country responds with a sigh of relief, all eyes look to the turn in the road ahead with a newfound optimism.

The turn in the road

It is often said that, in Spain, political parties don’t win an election; simply the “other” party loses. The few exceptions are in Felipe Gonzalez’s and Aznar’s second mandate, both won with absolute majorities.

The Socialist party (PSOE), now led by Mr Pérez Rubalcaba, is historically far better at campaigning than the Conservative party (PP – Partido Popular). Socialist campaigns are unabashed, provocative, relentless and simple in message. They usually have little to do with the real political issues facing the country and rarely dedicate time to address practical details of how anything is actually going to get done.  Personally it is very unsettling that the out-bound socialist leader known as Mr Zapatero is really called Mr Rodríguez, and that the Socialist candidate for the 2011 general elections, Mr Rubalcaba, is really Mr Pérez. Both Zapatero and Rubalcaba are merely the second half of their surnames. It begs the question: Is it all simply about winning? To win the elections, at any cost, and to then govern? Yes. This simplicity and focus is key the PSOE’s success in the ballots.   Are the Socialists good at governing? No.

Is the Conservative Party good at campaigning and winning elections? Historically no. Are they good at governing? Yes, very good. Is the country good at knowing and choosing what it needs versus what it wants? No. Today, at this junction, the country needs for the Conservatives to really win; or alternatively Spain needs the Socialists to really, really lose.

Spain, the people, from top to bottom, young to old, must understand that they too must say. Spain has to decide what it wants, stand up and say it, it needs to vote and understand that it is totally accountable for the country’s future. Fixing isn’t only in the hands of the Government.

Zoom Out, not In

In practical terms the elections will be like a traffic jam on our mountain road, decision-making will be de-railed between now and 20 November. All attention will be drawn to the campaign, fuelled in part by that new audience that is attracted to the scent of blood, addicted to the thrills of possible near demise – imaginary at best, but the rush is good enough. The risk and responsibility will be, as with any great documentary, in the hands of the director: in today’s terms, the media and opinion formers. Their ability to focus on the important issues, not to miss the panoramic shot of the Great Migration because the camera is zooming in on the intellectually handicapped nano-politicians, trade unions or Pied-Piper protesters, the hyenas of our times.

Spain is a mature social state that has been for centuries a cornerstone of Europe and an intrinsic player in its evolution. So one should not be distracted nor make fascinating and thrilling yet unfounded comparisons.

The country will continue its journey, placing each step carefully, it may slip, it may stumble but it will not fall off the path to a rocky demise. The road will be steep and the country’s muscles will scream with pain.

With a majority Conservative win, the road will immediately broaden to enable Spain’s corporate and new political world to climb the road in pace, face the challenges jointly, in coordination and seamlessly. This is the true strength of Spain.

Premium DNA

Spanish businesses are smarter than ever, increasingly diverse and dynamic. Its business leaders are ambitious, courageous and responsible. There is significant intellectual capacity still to be tapped throughout the country.

Spain also has unique geographic positioning which has yet to be smartly exploited in contemporary times. History reminds us that Spain’s geographic location has been key to its competitive resurgence time and time again.

Spain can and should be – politicians permitting – not only the fruit & vegetable garden of Europe but also one of the most culturally-diverse tourist destinations of the world; a superior retirement destination; a core hub for healthcare and specialist treatments for Europe; and a rich channel for Latin American business to tap both the Euro and European partners for strong diversified global growth.  

The current level of desertification in Spain is 35%, with a high risk of 50% of the land mass becoming desert. There is also 7,880 kilometres of coast. The world’s most significant R&D and industrial players in the field of water are actively established in the country. Put these facts together and it is easy to forecast that Spain should be the absolute world leader in R&D and deployment of water treatment, re-utilization and conservation. Water is a global issue. Spain should research, develop, build, use and export water technologies. Irreversible mistakes were made with renewable energies, once again by the present socialist government, and as a result Spain will not be the world leader in solar, wind, etc. But lessons learnt must be applied.

People in business, the business of People

Spain is repleat with individual universal talent: sportsmen, artists, musicians, scientists; with corporate strength: global banks, communications operators; industry leading consumer goods, textile and design, entertainment companies; with pioneering bio-techs, advanced engineering, technology and energy businesses … there is most definitely strategic diversification and strength in Spain’s corporate make-up.

Spanish professionals and businesses, be they large or small, play on a single global stage. They team up with the best of breed and are committed to becoming better, every day.

Spain will demand from the next government absolute dedication, aligning policy to people and to business. The country requires efficient tools and support from public administration, intelligent young generations, healthy and happy work forces, reliable regulatory frameworks and, above all, intelligent partners in the public arena.

Prime Ministerial Hall of Fame

Felipe Gonzalez (1982-1996) will be remembered for progress in its broadest and most generous sense, joining NATO and the GAL (anti-terrorist groups).

José María Aznar (1996-2004) will be remembered for the Azores summit, record economic prosperity and the undermining of ETA. (Terrorists)

José Luis Rodriquez [Zapatero] (2004-2011) will be remembered for economic destruction, social fracturing and the re-birth of ETA.

Mariano Rajoy (2011- ), the leader of the Conservative party, must be remembered for aligning Spain’s people, its business and its culture to prosperity and wellbeing; for demonstrating through example that austerity and hard work are an intrinsic and constant part of prosperity and that rights are always accompanied by obligations. Rajoy’s leadership must be remembered for redefining Spain to the world as a country made up of multifaceted strengths and attributes committed to better.

It’s all about Us

Everyone has the ability and responsibility to continually view and judge fairly, to see not only leaders but also what is being led, and under the pressures of the Fast-News world, to be the wise man.

 

Alejandra Moore Mayorga is the Managing Director of Grupo Albión, in Madrid. Grupo Albión is a partner agency of Fishburn Hedges in international network www.gfcnet.com.

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