Fishburn Hedges

27.04.2010

Background

It's midway through the election campaign and both the bookies and the pollsters agree that there is a high chance of a hung Parliament, thereby conferring ‘kingmaker’ status to the Lib Dems.  This prospect has caused mild panic in some quarters – largely because it’s so unprecedented in recent times. 

But to help calm nerves and answer some of the ‘what ifs’, we’ve produced seven practical steps for dealing with government in a hung Parliament should that happen. 

Step one: understand the result

Nick Clegg has always maintained that, if no one party wins overall control of the Commons, the Lib Dems would strike a deal with whoever held the biggest mandate (although he’s been deliberately vague on whether this means share of vote or number of seats).

Once a deal is hammered out - and there’s much speculation over whether the Lib Dems would prefer to get into bed with Labour or the Conservatives (as evidenced by Clegg’s recent interviews) - we’re likely to see one of two forms of government, and this is the first crucial step in understanding how a hung Parliament would work:
• A minority Labour or Conservative government - sustained by informal Parliamentary arrangements with the Lib Dems, such as agreements to support key votes or legislation.
• A coalition government - a formal agreement between parties, including the possible sharing of Cabinet seats (something that Nick Clegg has previously ruled out).

Step two: understand the mechanics

While Nick Clegg has asked his party for a free hand in doing a deal during a hung Parliament, there are questions around just how much he’ll need to follow party guidelines before making any decisions.

A slightly obscure party resolution from 1998 means that Clegg would technically require a 75% majority of both Lib Dem MPs and the Federal Executive before he could do a deal.  If that wasn’t forthcoming on the deal Clegg sought, he may resort to a ballot of Lib Dem party members – although this could prove controversial. 

The party has been shy in confronting these issues, with Clegg preferring to leave the matter open to give him maximum manoeuvrability post-election. However, the issue is likely to ignite if the country returns a hung Parliament.

A timeline for a hung Parliament is provided below: 

Thursday 6 May (Election day)

• Polling takes place

Friday 7 May (Results declared)

• A Hung Parliament
• Gordon Brown can await the meeting of the new Parliament to see whether he can command the confidence of the Commons
• In the meantime, the Government remains intact, which could lead to the bizarre situation where (for example) Alistair Darling could lose his seat but remain as Chancellor
• Induction and ‘settling in’ of new MPs begins

Tuesday 18 May (Parliament returns)

• The Commons returns; if no deal has been struck then the minority Government is vulnerable to a vote of no confidence
• The Commons will confirm the Speaker of the House
• MPs start swearing the oath of allegiance

Tuesday 25 May tbc (Queen's Speech)

• The crucial cut-off point and the date by which intra-party negotiations over forming a government must give way and an administration must formally present its case to Parliament

Step three: it pays to know the Lib Dem manifesto

Any deal in a hung Parliament is likely to centre on the key themes from the Lib Dem manifesto.  In condensed form, the Lib Dems want to see fair taxes, more chances for children, a fairer and greener economy, and a clean-up of politics. 

These vague commitments give Clegg a fairly free hand in striking a deal with the biggest party - but watch out for haggling over ID cards, Trident, the Eurofighter contract and cutting a spate of quangos. 

Step four: understanding the channels of influence

In days gone by, mapping influence in government was relatively easy: you started with the Prime Minister in the centre and worked outwards.  But understanding who influences who in a minority or coalition government could mean tying yourself in knots. 

The key is to understand the structure. By identifying the roles and responsibilities (and personalities) in any minority or coalition government, you can very quickly build up a picture of how the machine works.  Here are some options for how government could adapt to the change:

• A joint committee (based on the Labour-Lib Dem working group in 1997) – to thrash out the details of two parties co-existing in minority government
• Invite the Lib Dems to attend Cabinet – even if this isn’t as part of a formal coalition
• Co-operate on key pieces of legislation – with key votes organised through the party whips
• Council of Financial Stability – the Lib Dems’ proposal for bringing together all stakeholders to draft the Budget

Step five: know the Lib Dems

Getting to know the key personalities in the Lib Dem Parliamentary Party will also pay dividends.  With Clegg now a national figure, and Cable a national institution, other members of the frontbench team aren’t getting much of a look-in. 

Here’s a quick rundown of three ‘other’ frontbench Lib Dems who could be prominent in any hung Parliament:

• Ed Davey (Kingston and Surbiton) – Foreign Affairs spokesperson, key Clegg ally and one of the Lib Dems’ more regular media spokespeople.  Likely to be a key part of any hung Parliament talks.
• Norman Lamb (North Norfolk) – widely respected health spokesperson, former lawyer and seasoned campaigner.  Part of the ambitious crop of younger Lib Dems.
• David Laws (Yeovil) – Education spokesperson, holder of Paddy Ashdown’s former seat and a member of the ‘Orange Book’ group on the right of the party.  He will push for dealing with Cameron over Brown.

Step six: reacquaint yourself with the legislative process

A hung Parliament will thrust the legislative process back into the limelight after years of dominance by the party whips.  A new intake of MPs, combined with no overall control in the Commons, could mean backbenchers will have a far greater role in shaping Bills. Understanding the difference between Second Reading and Report stage will be crucial – alongside a good working knowledge of how to block and amend legislation.

The experience of hung Parliaments in Scotland shows that horse-trading on individual pieces of legislation can still deliver effective decisions; it’s also common place in a range of European democracies.  Moreover, we’ve got plenty of experience in Westminster of dealing with no overall majorities: just look at the House of Lords.   

Step seven: the only key vote is the Budget

Remember, minority governments can work effectively.  One lesson from the SNP in Scotland is that a minority government can rule effectively using statutory instruments, delegated legislation and direct powers. 

The only vote that really counts is the Budget - and as long as there’s a deal between parties on votes, the minority or coalition government can stay intact.  The Budget is therefore likely to be a far more open and inclusive process - and the Lib Dems are likely to use maximum pressure to secure concessions.

For more information please contact:

Rob O’Halloran
020 7544 3013