Fishburn Hedges

10.02.2012

So, the soap opera of the Health and Social Care Bill continues. Another tricky week for Cameron and Lansley climaxes with a call from the influential ConservativeHome blog to bin the Bill.

Admittedly fairly entertaining for those of us with a slightly sadistic streak… but what are we to make of these latest developments? Will the Bill stand or fall and, more importantly, will it cause lasting damage to the Coalition (or, more accurately, the Conservatives)?

It’s rumoured that Tim Montgomorie, editor of ConservativeHome, was encouraged to act as a mouthpiece for some among the Tory ranks who are becoming increasingly concerned about the negative impact of the NHS row – specifically, a number of disgruntled Cabinet Ministers who are frustrated that Cameron is just not listening on this one.

Rumour also has it that the Chancellor, George Osborne (known to be close to Montgomorie) could be behind today’s call. After all, he’s not done a great job so far of hiding his scepticism about the Bill.

While ultimately the Coalition’s performance on the economy will be the real test of their leadership, and whether or not they manage to hold enough public support to get them re-elected, it’s understandable that all-too-familiar rhetoric around Tories ruining the NHS is an increasing cause for concern.

As highlighted by Shadow Health Secretary Andy Burnham on the Today Programme earlier this week, the real danger lies in this period of limbo for the NHS, where we’re half way between two structures, services are being de-commissioned as PCTs shut down and patients are going to lose out as a result.

If we start to see – as I feel it’s inevitable we will – figures coming through highlighting increases in waiting times, mortality rates and the like, the impact of the health reforms could become much more serious for the Coalition Government, and for Cameron in particular.

The Prime Minister has exposed his Achilles Heel and the Opposition are already going for it. With two not-so-impressive performances at PMQs already under his belt, in which Cameron exposed a real lack of knowledge on the detail of the reforms, it’s highly unlikely that Ed Miliband is going to stop until he draws blood…

I’m still not 100% sure that we will see the Bill scrapped altogether – it feels more likely that it’ll scrape through in some form. But, if the Coalition has another week like this one, who knows…