Fishburn Hedges

25.08.2010

Just three months after the UK came up with its first hung parliament since WWII, Australia has gone and done the same thing. At last count, the ruling Labor Party and the opposition Liberal-National coalition were neck-and-neck with 71 seats each. As the two main parties court the unlikely kingmakers – three Independent MPs from rural Australia – there’s a sense that we’ve been here before. So, what can the Aussies learn from the Brits, if anything, and what will happen next?

There are some important differences to keep in mind - Julia Gillard, Australia’s first female Prime Minister, only took hold of the leadership of the ruling Labor Party two months ago. Back in June she deposed the once-popular PM Kevin Rudd in a bloodless coup, and decided to go straight to the polls. Her opponent, Tony Abbott, with his penchant for making public appearances in ‘budgie-smugglers’ (if you’re unsure, google), frequent gaffes and archly conservative values, has never really been taken seriously. Unlike the UK, the incumbent was expected to win.

An (un)clear result

Here is not the place to discuss what went wrong (or right, depending on viewpoint) during the campaign, but what happened was that Julia Gillard found herself staring down the barrel of defeat on August 21. The polls were split almost exactly 50/50 going in, and the seats are split 50/50 coming out. With three seats still to be declared, it looks as if the final split will be 72 to Labor and 73 to the Coalition. 76 are needed for a clear majority.

Back in May, in the UK, the split between Cameron’s Conservatives and Brown’s Labor stood at 306-258. A bigger difference between the two parties, though still not enough for the Conservatives to form a government. The Liberal Democrats came in third place with 57 seats. With most talk of a minority government dismissed out of hand, what ensued was frantic courting of the Liberal Democrats, who bounced between the two parties until finally settling for the Conservatives five days later.

Plenty of characters

If there is one obvious difference between what happened in the UK and what is happening in Australia now, it is the presence of the Liberal Democrats. An established third party, with clear viewpoints on electoral issues, a strong political heritage and credible players, they became the turnkey in the post-election negotiations. In Australia, there is no third party. The next best option after the two big players is the Green party, which won a grand total of one seat. Instead, both parties are attempting to woo the three (most likely four, once all seats are finalised) Independents that make up the rest of parliament. These are Bob Katter from Queensland, a character if ever there was one, who styles himself as the Akubra-wearing “Force from the North”; Rob Oakeshott from Northern New South Wales, a “social progressive and economic conservative”; and Tony Windsor, also from Northern New South Wales, whose top priority is securing super-fast broadband for rural Australia.

The Independents have vowed to act as one in negotiations with the two major parties, and had given no indication as to preference before they began talks today. All are wildcards – though each one has previously been a member of the National party, (which has been in Coalition with Tony Abbott’s Liberals since 1996), there is no love lost for their old party comrades or their coalition partners. With no key issue to unite the three independents, negotiations are likely to centre on regional issues that preoccupy the Independents disproportionately to other MPs. While in the UK the key points of negotiation were voting reform and Trident, Bob Katter wants to ban all foreign imports of bananas. A similar situation would perhaps have occurred if Labor had gone with the idea of partnering with the Celtic parties – quickly dismissed as a bonkers and unworkable option.

The outcome of these negotiations is anyone’s guess – unlike in the UK, where a Lib-Con coalition seemed to be the inevitable option apart from a few frantic hours, in Australia we could have a Lab-Green-Independent very slim majority or a Lib-Independent very slim majority if the Independents stick together, or a minority government from either party if they split up. I wouldn’t risk my money on any of the four options, and the sooner this political twilight zone comes to an end, the better – but it’s going to be fun to watch. 

Posted by Joanna Heath