Fishburn Hedges

24.10.2011

One of the first principles of politics is to know your audience.  At present, the audience for Conservative politicians is an increasingly unsettled British public, deeply concerned about their own personal finances and the macro health of the economy.  As the latest YouGov tracker survey reveals, more than 8 out of 10 all Brits cite the economy as one of the three issues of most importance to them.

By contrast, the same survey records that only 1 out of 10 non-Conservative voters see the UK’s relationship with European Union as a major concern.  Even among Conservative voters, that number rises to only 3 out of 10.  Accordingly, it looks like a perverse time to pick a fight over Europe. Consider the history of the Conservative party and it looks more akin to an act of self flagellation.

Irrespective of the number of rebels in the House of Commons lobby on Monday evening, I can see the machinations of the last week having lasting repercussions for the Conservative party.

The first is that picking an internal fight over membership of the European Union makes the largest party in government look like it is talking to itself and not the country.  Yes 100,000 members of the public have signed an e-petition calling for this debate, but nearly 500,000 have signed a 38 degrees motion on the NHS.  The reality is that this issue is not being driven by public concern, but because it is a cause célebre on the right-wing of the Conservative party. 

Perhaps I am being overly harsh, for cause célebre, you could easily read ‘issue of principle’.  That is a question of perspective, but what is irrefutable is that the Conservative party have a tradition of self-destruction on the European question.  John Major’s premiership was torn apart by divisions over the Maastricht Treaty and in some ways, 2011 is not so dissimilar from 1993.  In the early 1990s, the Conservatives had a wafer thin majority in Parliament and can only govern today in partnership with the pro-European Liberal Democrats.  Just as Major relied on other parties to win votes on the EU, Cameron is indebted to the pro-European leanings of both Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband.  It won’t be lost on Cameron, that it is not a good habit to have to continually rely on the votes of your opponents as opposed to your backbench ‘friends’ in the House of Commons.

The final sub-plot surrounds the 2010 Conservative intake and what today’s rebellion will do to their reputation.  It is no secret that the batch of Conservative MPs elected in 2010 are to the right of Cameron on an array of issues, but have so far kept relatively quiet on the backbenches.  It sends a powerful message that in the midst of a global economic crisis, the one issue on which the new generation opt to make a stand is Europe.  It makes easy the job of a Labour speechwriter keen to portray the new generation of Conservatives as the ‘same old Tories’.

Tonight it is Back to the Future and a Tory rebellion on Europe.  By 2015, we could well be reflecting on this vote as the opening skirmish in yet another Conservative civil war. 

Posted by Andrew Lewin