Fishburn Hedges

Holly Rouse

With Parliament heading into recess, last night saw the turn of the political pundits to share their views on the Coalition. At a packed seminar at the Institute for Government, Danny Finkelstein, Olly Grender and Will Straw waxed and waned about the Government’s first few months in office and its prospects for the years ahead.

Enjoying a glass of wine in the audience, I listened with interest as in turn they each admitted the Coalition had confounded they initial expectations and now looked like running its five year course albeit with a few bumpy roads ahead. So what did they have to say?

 - Relationships are at the heart of the coalition’s stability. Politics is after all about chemistry not physics. Ministers are getting on well while David Cameron has formed a strong bond with Nick Clegg, respecting his intellect and pre-election boldness.

 - This desire for maintaining stability will manifest itself in greater ministerial continuity. Expect far fewer reshuffles than seen in previous years, although there will be a concerted effort to promote more women through the ranks.

 -The big tests and potential hiccups will be the referendum on AV, local elections and agreeing a way forward on funding for higher education. Win or lose on AV, however, the Lib Dems are likely to want to remain in the coalition camp where there is a greater opportunity to influence and shape political reform.

 - Going forward, the Lib Dems greatest challenge will be to find a unique political voice and to demonstrate to the electorate how it has delivered on its election promises. Currently though the leadership is holding its nerve regarding the opinion polls, believing that sometimes you just need to do what you think is right regardless of the consequences.

 - A future pact or merger between the two coalition parties is highly unlikely, particularly in the run-up to the next General Election, but the political wind has undoubtedly changed with coalition politics likely to be the future order of the day.

 Posted by Holly Rouse